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When faced with fire: How climate change could affect Canada’s wildfire risk

The 2023 wildfire season has been record-breaking in a number of ways. On June 27, 2023, Canada exceeded its known historical record for total area burned by wildfire in a single season — shattering a statistic that has stood for 34 years.

07/20/2023

The 2023 wildfire season has been record-breaking in a number of ways. On June 27, 2023, Canada exceeded its known historical record for total area burned by wildfire in a single season — shattering a statistic that has stood for 34 years. With months left to go in the 2023 season, Canada has already also surpassed the 10-year average for number of fires, as well as set a record for forced evacuations.

In our second episode of When faced with fire, a three part podcast series where we explore Canada’s wildfire risk, Ritch Seeley, a managing director within Marsh Advisory Canada, chats with George Fan, who is their lead consultant for natural catastrophe and climate risks, and Mirsada Jakupovic, one of Marsh’s senior insurance placement leaders for western Canada. They shed light on how climate change may affect the severity of wildfire season in years to come, as well as the potential insurance implications.

Stay tuned for our final episode, where we will discuss ways to improve your business resilience, and how you can minimize wildfire-associated disruptions.

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Key takeaways

Canada is warming at an alarming rate

Since 1948, the annual average temperature in Canada has increased at roughly twice the global average rate. Due to our higher latitudes, this phenomenon is even more prominent in the northern regions, where the annual mean temperature has risen by roughly three times the global average warming rate. These higher temperatures lead to warmer winters and longer wildfire seasons.

We can’t count on increased rainfall to tamp down wildfire risk

Although average precipitation is projected to increase with climate change, its effects will be uneven globally. With this in mind, wildfire risk is still expected to increase as global average temperatures rise. Additionally, once wildfire burns through an area, the charred and barren ground is less able to absorb water, leaving it more susceptible to flooding.

Heightened scrutiny from underwriters is expected

Insurers are aware of increasing wildfire risk and have already paid significant claims caused by the fires. We anticipate they will be taking steps to mitigate this exposure, which may include more restrictive underwriting, increases in pricing, moratoriums for new expanded business during wildfire season, and mandatory across the board deductibles.

Resources

The Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) gives you insight into when and how a wildfire may be approaching your site by providing daily fire weather and fire behavior maps year-round.

FireSmart™ Canada helps you lessen your wildfire risk by offering resources that address common concerns about wildfire in the wildland urban interface.

FM Global provides reports and data sheets that can help you protect and prepare yourself against wildfire risk with recommendations on how to mitigate your exposure.

Although the National Fire Protection Association’s (NFPA) standards for wildland fire management are not publicly available, NFPA’s wildfire division offers many free resources, such as fact sheets and online trainings, which can help you reduce your risks of damage and loss due to wildfire.

About our speakers

Other podcasts in the series

When faced with fire: Responding to Canada’s wildfire risk

When faced with fire: Building business resilience for wildfire events in Canada

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